eLife · 2020
Integrating genotypes and phenotypes improves long-term forecasts of seasonal influenza A/H3N2 evolution.
СтатьяПоддержка NIH: внешняя программаПоддержка исследования: вне правительства СШАНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Huddleston John, Barnes John R, Rowe Thomas, Xu Xiyan, Kondor Rebecca, Wentworth David E, Whittaker Lynne, Ermetal Burcu, Daniels Rodney Stuart, McCauley John W, Fujisaki Seiichiro, Nakamura Kazuya, Kishida Noriko, Watanabe Shinji, Hasegawa Hideki, Barr Ian, Subbarao Kanta, Barrat-Charlaix Pierre, Neher Richard A, Bedford Trevor
Аннотация
Seasonal influenza virus A/H3N2 is a major cause of death globally. Vaccination remains the most effective preventative. Rapid mutation of hemagglutinin allows viruses to escape adaptive immunity. This antigenic drift necessitates regular vaccine updates. Effective vaccine strains need to represent H3N2 populations circulating one year after strain selection. Experts select strains based on experimental measurements of antigenic drift and predictions made by models from hemagglutinin sequences. We developed a novel influenza forecasting framework that integrates phenotypic measures of antigenic drift and functional constraint with previously published sequence-only fitness estimates. Forecasts informed by phenotypic measures of antigenic drift consistently outperformed previous sequence-only estimates, while sequence-only estimates of functional constraint surpassed more comprehensive experimentally-informed estimates. Importantly, the best models integrated estimates of both functional constraint and either antigenic drift phenotypes or recent population growth.