Reliability assessment of train control and management system based on evidential reasoning rule and covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy algorithm.

The reliability assessment of train control and management system (TCMS) is essential for the condition monitoring of high-speed train. Different from other general complex systems, the TCMS has the characteristics of multi-system unit, strong coupling and multiple factors. Considering the special system operating environment and high safety requirements of high-speed train. In this paper, for the reliability assessment of TCMS, we propose a new quantitative model based on the evidential reasoning rule and covariance matrix adaptation evolution strategy algorithm, the proposed model offers the following advantages: it has a strong modeling capability for the TCMS reliability, it has an interpretable model assessment process, it can describe the assessment result under probabilistic uncertainty and ignorance uncertainty, and it possesses considerable robustness. To make the model interpretable, an assessment hierarchy is established for the TCMS; to improve model robustness, weights interval is applied to replace the trained weights as the model weights. Several traditional methods are compared with the proposed model to demonstrate its performance, the results show that the proposed model has a better training accuracy. Moreover, a case study is conducted to verify the model's functional feasibility.