Nan fang yi ke da xue xue bao = Journal of Southern Medical University · 2026
[Re-transmission risk prediction of imported Chikungunya fever in Guangdong Province using the SEIR-SEI model].
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Xu Lishan, Li Keke, Yu Milai, Zhi Qiuyi, An Shengli
Аннотация
OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the effectiveness of different intervention measures against transmission of imported Chikungunya fever (CHIKF) in Guangdong Province to provide quantitative decision-making support for epidemic prevention and control.
METHODS: Based on the imported epidemic and mosquito vector monitoring data in Guangdong Province, a human-mosquito coupling SEIR-SEI transmission dynamics model was constructed. By adjusting the environmental carrying coefficient (k), the average number of bites (θ) and the interval between onset and diagnosis (1/ γ p), the local transmission risk and prevention and control threshold were simulated in scenarios of no intervention, single intervention (mosquito control/anti-mosquito/case isolation) and comprehensive intervention.
RESULTS: A total of 65 imported cases were reported in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2019. The simulation results showed limited prevention and control effect of a single intervention measure, and reducing k to below 0.001 or θ to below 0.1 was essential to block re-transmission of the epidemic; shortening 1/ γ p could significantly reduce the incidence peak and shorten the epidemic cycle. The effect of comprehensive intervention was significantly better than that of single intervention. The critical threshold of blocking transimission varied with the combination of parameters. For a k value no greater than 0.5, θ needed to be controlled below 0.4 and 1/ γ p below 3 days, or a more stringent alternative combination should be adopted.
CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive intervention measures should be implemented to contain imported CHIKF epidemics in Guangdong Province. It is recommended that k be controlled below 0.5, θ below 0.4, and 1/ γ p within 3 days, and these thresholds can provide reference for prevention and control of similar epidemics.
METHODS: Based on the imported epidemic and mosquito vector monitoring data in Guangdong Province, a human-mosquito coupling SEIR-SEI transmission dynamics model was constructed. By adjusting the environmental carrying coefficient (k), the average number of bites (θ) and the interval between onset and diagnosis (1/ γ p), the local transmission risk and prevention and control threshold were simulated in scenarios of no intervention, single intervention (mosquito control/anti-mosquito/case isolation) and comprehensive intervention.
RESULTS: A total of 65 imported cases were reported in Guangdong Province from 2008 to 2019. The simulation results showed limited prevention and control effect of a single intervention measure, and reducing k to below 0.001 or θ to below 0.1 was essential to block re-transmission of the epidemic; shortening 1/ γ p could significantly reduce the incidence peak and shorten the epidemic cycle. The effect of comprehensive intervention was significantly better than that of single intervention. The critical threshold of blocking transimission varied with the combination of parameters. For a k value no greater than 0.5, θ needed to be controlled below 0.4 and 1/ γ p below 3 days, or a more stringent alternative combination should be adopted.
CONCLUSIONS: Comprehensive intervention measures should be implemented to contain imported CHIKF epidemics in Guangdong Province. It is recommended that k be controlled below 0.5, θ below 0.4, and 1/ γ p within 3 days, and these thresholds can provide reference for prevention and control of similar epidemics.