Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.) · 2026
How Low Could Semaglutide Prices Fall? An Analysis of Production Cost and Implications for Global Access.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
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Levi Jacob, Cross Samuel, Ramesh Nydile, Venter Francois, Hill Andrew
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to estimate potential launch prices of generic semaglutide following patent expiry in 2026 and to quantify the global obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) burden in countries where generic access may become possible.
METHODS: We used World Bank population data and World Obesity and Diabetes Atlas prevalence estimates to calculate obesity and T2DM burden. Patent status was identified using MedsPaL and cross-checked with regional databases. We applied updated cost-plus pricing methods using 2024-2025 Indian active pharmaceutical ingredient shipment data to estimate production costs for oral and injectable semaglutide, incorporating formulation, packaging, taxation, and profit assumptions.
RESULTS: Twelve countries with 2026 patent expiry account for 47% of obesity and 49% of T2DM globally. No patent filings were identified in 150 additional countries. By the end of 2026, generic injectable semaglutide could be available in 162 countries representing 69% of global T2DM and 84% of clinical obesity. Estimated generic injectable costs ranged from $28 to $140 per person-year; oral formulations ranged from $186 to $380 per person-year. Injection devices contributed disproportionately to total cost.
CONCLUSIONS: Patent expiry may substantially expand access at lower prices, but device costs, secondary patents, and health system constraints could limit equitable uptake without coordinated policy action.
METHODS: We used World Bank population data and World Obesity and Diabetes Atlas prevalence estimates to calculate obesity and T2DM burden. Patent status was identified using MedsPaL and cross-checked with regional databases. We applied updated cost-plus pricing methods using 2024-2025 Indian active pharmaceutical ingredient shipment data to estimate production costs for oral and injectable semaglutide, incorporating formulation, packaging, taxation, and profit assumptions.
RESULTS: Twelve countries with 2026 patent expiry account for 47% of obesity and 49% of T2DM globally. No patent filings were identified in 150 additional countries. By the end of 2026, generic injectable semaglutide could be available in 162 countries representing 69% of global T2DM and 84% of clinical obesity. Estimated generic injectable costs ranged from $28 to $140 per person-year; oral formulations ranged from $186 to $380 per person-year. Injection devices contributed disproportionately to total cost.
CONCLUSIONS: Patent expiry may substantially expand access at lower prices, but device costs, secondary patents, and health system constraints could limit equitable uptake without coordinated policy action.