How Low Could Semaglutide Prices Fall? An Analysis of Production Cost and Implications for Global Access.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate potential launch prices of generic semaglutide following patent expiry in 2026 and to quantify the global obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) burden in countries where generic access may become possible.

METHODS

We used World Bank population data and World Obesity and Diabetes Atlas prevalence estimates to calculate obesity and T2DM burden. Patent status was identified using MedsPaL and cross-checked with regional databases. We applied updated cost-plus pricing methods using 2024-2025 Indian active pharmaceutical ingredient shipment data to estimate production costs for oral and injectable semaglutide, incorporating formulation, packaging, taxation, and profit assumptions.

RESULTS

Twelve countries with 2026 patent expiry account for 47% of obesity and 49% of T2DM globally. No patent filings were identified in 150 additional countries. By the end of 2026, generic injectable semaglutide could be available in 162 countries representing 69% of global T2DM and 84% of clinical obesity. Estimated generic injectable costs ranged from $28 to $140 per person-year; oral formulations ranged from $186 to $380 per person-year. Injection devices contributed disproportionately to total cost.

CONCLUSIONS

Patent expiry may substantially expand access at lower prices, but device costs, secondary patents, and health system constraints could limit equitable uptake without coordinated policy action.