[Carbon Storage Effects and Driving Factors of the Transformation of Production-living-ecological Spaces in Henan Province Under the Dual Carbon Goals].

Quantifying the carbon storage effects of the transformation of production-living-ecological spaces and revealing its driving mechanisms is a key scientific issue for coordinating regional development and ecological protection. Taking Henan Province as the research object， this study constructs a transmission path framework of "spatial transformation-carbon storage effects-driving mechanisms；" integrates multi-source parameters such as land use， natural environment， and socio-economy； couples the InVEST-Geodetector method； and systematically discusses the carbon storage effects and driving factors of the transformation of production-living-ecological spaces by combining dynamic degree analysis， transfer matrix， and contribution rate analysis. The results show that： ① From 2000 to 2020， the production space in Henan Province was continuously shrinking， while the ecological and living spaces was gradually expanding. This process showed a trend of slow change in the early stage and drastic change in the later stage. Among them， the changes in industrial production space and urban living space were the most frequent. The spatial transformation was mainly characterized by the most frequent conversions among agricultural production space， rural living space， forest ecological space， and grassland ecological space， followed by the conversion of agricultural production space into industrial production space and urban living space. ② The carbon storage showed a continuous downward trend. Especially in the last decade， the reduction rate was 2.54×106 t·a-1， which was approximately three times higher than that in the previous decade. The conversion of agricultural production space into rural living space was the main reason for the reduction of carbon storage （with a contribution proportion of 57.70%）， followed by the conversion of forest ecological space into grassland and agricultural production space （with a contribution proportion of 15.77%）. ③ The change of carbon storage was jointly driven by natural factors and socio-economic factors. Among the natural factors， NDVI， elevation， and annual average temperature always had the strongest explanatory power for carbon storage （q > 0.193）， followed by economic density and population density （q > 0.1）. Moreover， the explanatory power of the interaction of various factors for carbon storage was significantly enhanced. Based on this， this study proposes optimization approaches for the production-living-ecological spaces in Henan Province under the dual carbon goals， which has practical significance for achieving the coordinated goals of food security and carbon neutrality.