Predictive value of repeated measurements of luteal progesterone and estradiol levels in patients with intrauterine insemination and controlled ovarian stimulation.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study is to assess if the difference of repeated measurements of estradiol and progesterone during luteal phase predict the outcome of intrauterine insemination.

DESIGN

Prospective study.

SETTING

Reproductive clinic.

PATIENTS: 126 patients with infertility.

INTERVENTION(S): Patients underwent controlled ovarian stimulation with recombinant FSH (50-150 IU/d). The day of IUI patients were given p.o natural micronized progesterone in a dose of 100 mg/tds.

RESULTS

The area under the receiver characteristic operating curve (ROC curve) in predicting clinical pregnancy for % change of estradiol level on days 6 and 10 was 0.892 with 95% CI: 0.82-0.94. A cutoff value of change > -29.5% had a sensitivity of 85.7 with a specificity of 90.2. The corresponding ROC curve for % change of progesterone level was 0.839 with 95% CI: 0.76-0.90. A cutoff value of change > -33% had a sensitivity of 85 with a specificity of 75.

CONCLUSIONS

The % change of estradiol and progesterone between days 6 and 10 has a predictive ability of pregnancy after IUI with COS of 89.2% and 83.4%, respectively. The addition of % of progesterone to % change of estradiol does not improve the predictive ability of % estradiol and should not be used.