Early determination of the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases: the case of dengue in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate a new method of deriving the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases from the early epidemic curves for vector-borne diseases with incubations in the vectors and in the hosts.

METHOD: We applied the model to several dengue epidemics in different climatic regions of Brazil: Brasilia, Belém, Fortaleza, Boa Vista.

RESULTS

The new method leads to higher estimates of the reproductive number than previous models.

CONCLUSION

At present, Aedes aegypti densities, the meeting of more compatible strains of viruses and mosquitoes, may lead to re-emergence of urban yellow fever epidemics.