Risk-Based Triage Using Cytology and HPV Genotyping to Reduce Unnecessary Colposcopy: A Real-World Cross-Sectional Study.

Background and

Objectives

Despite the widespread adoption of HPV-based cervical cancer screening, the optimal triage strategy for women with low-grade cytological abnormalities and non-16/18 high-risk HPV (hrHPV) types remains debated. This study evaluated the impact of ASCCP risk-based triage strategies on colposcopy referral and biopsy outcomes in a large tertiary care center.

Methods

This retrospective cross-sectional study included 2748 sexually active women aged 30-65 years who underwent colposcopy at Ankara Etlik City Hospital (January 2023-June 2025). Of these, 1932 met ASCCP criteria for cervical biopsy. Cytology results, HPV genotypes (16, 18, and other hrHPV types), and histopathological findings were analyzed. CIN3+ (CIN3, adenocarcinoma in situ, or invasive carcinoma) was the primary outcome. Multivariable logistic regression identified independent predictors, with model fit assessed by Nagelkerke R2 and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test.

Results

The mean age was 42.8 ± 8.1 years. The overall CIN3+ prevalence was 15.9% (308/1932). HSIL cytology was the strongest independent predictor of CIN3+ (adjusted OR 22.41, 95% CI: 11.28-44.52). HPV16/18 combined with HSIL or ASC-H cytology conferred the highest risk (adjusted OR 17.88-21.67). Women with ASC-US or LSIL cytology and non-16/18 hrHPV types had CIN3+ rates below 10%. Irregular screening history was also an independent predictor (adjusted OR 1.38). A risk-based triage approach suggested a potential reduction of approximately 29.7% in colposcopy utilization. However, this estimate applies exclusively to the biopsied subgroup and does not account for potentially undetected lesions in the 816 non-biopsied women enrolled in surveillance follow-up.

Conclusions

HSIL cytology and HPV16/18 positivity represent the highest-risk profile for CIN3+ and should remain primary indications for colposcopy. Conversely, women with ASC-US or LSIL cytology and non-16/18 hrHPV types may be candidates for surveillance-based co-testing rather than immediate colposcopy, potentially enabling a resource-efficient reduction in unnecessary procedures within the biopsied cohort studied. Prospective validation in broader colposcopy-referred populations is needed before generalizing these findings to primary screening settings.