Methods of information in medicine · 2026
Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Population Dynamics of the Biological Vector Aedes Aegypti.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод в очереди
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Schwaiger Alexandra, Schweitzer Marco, Hackl Werner O, Pfeifer Bernhard
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: The invasive mosquito Aedes aegypti is a major vector of arboviruses, such as Dengue, Zika, Chikungunya and Yellow Fever.
OBJECTIVE: As a first step toward a transmission model for vector-borne diseases, a weather-dependent population dynamic simulation for Ae. aegypti was developed, suitable for high weather short-term variability in the Austrian region.
METHODS: We developed an agent-based model, incorporating temperature- and precipitation-dependent development, mortality, movement, feeding behavior, and egg-laying. Species-specific parameters were derived from published experimental studies. Simulations were run for observed weather data from 2024 and for EURO-CORDEX climate projections (ÖKS15) for 2050 and 2080 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Daily immigration of one adult female was assumed to mimic human-mediated introduction along major transport routes.
RESULTS: Under all scenarios, population development began in late May and ceased by late September. Observed 2024 conditions produced the highest population sizes (area under the curve [AUC] = 361,343 individuals), whereas all future projections resulted in substantially lower abundances, despite higher mean temperatures.
CONCLUSION: This discrepancy was driven by stronger fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, as well as the absence of urban heat-island effects in climate projections. Under no scenario did mosquitoes survive winter, indicating that long-term establishment is highly unlikely. The model provides a foundation for future extension toward spatially explicit virus transmission simulations, and for assessing the public health implications of climate change in alpine regions.
OBJECTIVE: As a first step toward a transmission model for vector-borne diseases, a weather-dependent population dynamic simulation for Ae. aegypti was developed, suitable for high weather short-term variability in the Austrian region.
METHODS: We developed an agent-based model, incorporating temperature- and precipitation-dependent development, mortality, movement, feeding behavior, and egg-laying. Species-specific parameters were derived from published experimental studies. Simulations were run for observed weather data from 2024 and for EURO-CORDEX climate projections (ÖKS15) for 2050 and 2080 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Daily immigration of one adult female was assumed to mimic human-mediated introduction along major transport routes.
RESULTS: Under all scenarios, population development began in late May and ceased by late September. Observed 2024 conditions produced the highest population sizes (area under the curve [AUC] = 361,343 individuals), whereas all future projections resulted in substantially lower abundances, despite higher mean temperatures.
CONCLUSION: This discrepancy was driven by stronger fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, as well as the absence of urban heat-island effects in climate projections. Under no scenario did mosquitoes survive winter, indicating that long-term establishment is highly unlikely. The model provides a foundation for future extension toward spatially explicit virus transmission simulations, and for assessing the public health implications of climate change in alpine regions.