Agent-Based Modeling Approach for Population Dynamics of the Biological Vector Aedes Aegypti.

BACKGROUND

The invasive mosquito Aedes aegypti is a major vector of arboviruses, such as Dengue, Zika, Chikungunya and Yellow Fever.

OBJECTIVE

As a first step toward a transmission model for vector-borne diseases, a weather-dependent population dynamic simulation for Ae. aegypti was developed, suitable for high weather short-term variability in the Austrian region.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based model, incorporating temperature- and precipitation-dependent development, mortality, movement, feeding behavior, and egg-laying. Species-specific parameters were derived from published experimental studies. Simulations were run for observed weather data from 2024 and for EURO-CORDEX climate projections (ÖKS15) for 2050 and 2080 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Daily immigration of one adult female was assumed to mimic human-mediated introduction along major transport routes.

RESULTS

Under all scenarios, population development began in late May and ceased by late September. Observed 2024 conditions produced the highest population sizes (area under the curve [AUC] = 361,343 individuals), whereas all future projections resulted in substantially lower abundances, despite higher mean temperatures.

CONCLUSION

This discrepancy was driven by stronger fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, as well as the absence of urban heat-island effects in climate projections. Under no scenario did mosquitoes survive winter, indicating that long-term establishment is highly unlikely. The model provides a foundation for future extension toward spatially explicit virus transmission simulations, and for assessing the public health implications of climate change in alpine regions.