Seasonal contact and migration structure mass epidemics and inform outbreak preparedness in a vulnerable marine mammal.

Infectious diseases have detrimental impacts across wildlife taxa. Despite this, we often lack information on the complex spatial and contact structures of host populations, reducing our ability to understand disease spread and our preparedness for epidemic response. This is also prevalent in the marine environment, where rapid habitat changes due to anthropogenic disturbances and human-induced climate change are heightening the vulnerability of marine species to disease. Recognizing these risks, we leveraged a collated dataset to establish a data-driven epidemiological metapopulation model for Tamanend's bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops erebennus), whose populations are periodically impacted by deadly respiratory disease. We found their spatial distribution and contact is heterogeneous throughout their habitat and by ecotype, which explains differences in past infection burdens. With our metapopulation approach, we demonstrate spatial hotspots for epidemic risk during migratory seasons and that populations in some central estuaries would be the most effective sentinels for disease surveillance. These mathematical models provide a generalizable, non-invasive tool that takes advantage of routinely collected wildlife data to mechanistically understand disease transmission and inform disease surveillance tactics. Our findings highlight the heterogeneities that play a crucial role in shaping the impacts of infectious diseases, and how a data-driven understanding of these mechanisms enhances epidemic preparedness.