Modelling for disease preparedness and response.

Modelling is a useful tool for the understanding and hence, potentially, control of disease. In an emergency situation, obtaining data to validate detailed models may be difficult. However, modelling can be useful in aiding the management of disease, if the objectives are not too ambitious. For example, import risk analysis can use models to minimise the risk of outbreaks. Modelling can also be used to maximise the power of surveillance data to ensure that any outbreak is detected as rapidly as possible. Methods of modelling spread of disease, and measures to prevent this, including SIR-style epidemiological models, models of disease control zones and contact network models can be used to identify and minimise the potential scale of an epidemic. Finally, economic and ecological models can be used to assess the impact of outbreaks. A range of simple models is likely to be of more use than a single comprehensive model.