The Prognostic Value of a Single, Randomly Timed Circulating Tumor DNA Measurement in Patients with Metastatic Melanoma.

Melanoma currently lacks validated blood-based biomarkers for monitoring and predicting treatment efficacy. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA), originating from tumor cells and detectable in plasma, has emerged as a possible biomarker in patients with metastatic melanoma. In this retrospective, single-center study, we collected 129 plasma samples from 79 patients with stage IIIB-IV melanoma as determined by the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC, 8th edition). For the determination of ctDNA levels, we used eight different assays of droplet digital polymerase chain reaction (ddPCR) to detect the most common hotspot mutations in the BRAF and NRAS genes. The aim of the study was to investigate the association of the detectability of ctDNA at a non-prespecified time point in a patient's treatment with tumor progression, and to correlate ctDNA with commonly used biomarkers (protein S100, LDH, and CRP). Patients with detectable ctDNA progressed more frequently in PET-CT within 12 months than those without detectable ctDNA. Detectability of ctDNA was associated with shorter OS in univariate and multivariate analyses. ctDNA was detectable in a statistically significantly larger proportion of patients with distant metastases (79%) than in patients with no distant metastases or only intracranial metastases (32%). Elevated protein S100 and CRP correlated better with detectable ctDNA than LDH. This study supports the potential of ctDNA as a prognostic biomarker in patients with metastatic melanoma. However, additional prospective longitudinal studies with quantitative assessments of ctDNA are necessary to investigate the limitations and strengths of ctDNA as a biomarker.