Predicting Plant Invasions Following China's Water Diversion Project.

China's South to North Water Diversion (SNWD) project connects portions of the Yangtze River in the south to the Yellow River system in the north, overcoming biogeographic barriers to water movement. The diversion will supply potable water to over 110 million people and provide multiple other socioeconomic benefits. However, an inadvertent negative impact of this connection includes creation of conduits for species invasions. Alligator weed (Alternanthera philoxeroides), water hyacinth (Eichhornia crassipes), and water lettuce (Pistia stratiotes) are the only aquatic plant species on China's shortlists for special control. These species are mainly invasive in the Yangtze River basin. If these species are able to invade the SNWD and further spread via the SNWD, they have the potential to alter water supply, including water quantity and quality, as well as local ecology and agriculture, threatening the goals of the diversion. Understanding the full potential for these species to invade northern China is critical to early management decisions to avoid costly negative impacts. We used Maxent modeling to evaluate the probability that each of these species might become invasive in the receiving water regions. The models predict that all three species will be able to expand their ranges northward, with alligator weed and water hyacinth having the greatest potential for range expansion. These results suggest the need for prevention, monitoring, and management strategies for these species to reduce the risk and costs of impacts.