Modeling the Role of Weather Patterns and Grain Quality in On-Farm Engulfments and Entrapments.

HIGHLIGHTS: Maximum high temperature and maximum relative humidity were found to be important in predicting corn moisture. Year, state, and maximum relative humidity were found to be important in predicting engulfment and entrapment. Findings warrant further investigation to examine exactly what is changing and impacting corn moisture and engulfment and entrapment incidents.

ABSTRACT: Despite the clear hazard of out-of-condition grain, limited research has explored the role of specific indicators of grain condition and their impact on the rate of grain entrapments and engulfments. This project focuses on corn because it is the primary crop involved with documented grain entrapments and engulfments. The primary aim of the project was to identify significant factors associated with the moisture of harvested corn and to analyze the relationship between these factors and the occurrence of engulfment and entrapments. First, it was found that both year and state were associated with corn moisture. Further, the relationship between corn moisture and weather variables in the U.S. Corn Belt was investigated. It was found that both maximum high temperature and relative humidity predict corn moisture. A secondary goal was to measure the relationship between selected weather factors, the moisture of commodity corn, and on-farm and commercial entrapment and engulfment incidents in the U.S. Corn Belt. Year, state, and maximum relative humidity were found to be important in predicting the occurrence of engulfments and entrapments. Future work should examine other quality factors using modeling, including test weight, total damage, foreign material, and more detailed weather data to consider several prediction alternatives.