Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Quantification of the Effects of Ultraviolet Germicidal Irradiation on COVID-19 Transmission.

Quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is presented as a tool for evaluation of the effectiveness of ultraviolet germicidal irradiation (UVGI) systems for the disinfection of indoor air. The QMRA is developed in the context of UVGI system implementation for control of SARS-CoV-2 infection and comprises submodels to address problem formulation, exposure assessment, and health effects assessment, all of which provide input to a risk characterization submodel. The model simulations indicate that UVGI systems can effectively control the risk of infection associated with SARS-CoV-2 for low to moderate virus emission rates. The risk of disease transmission is strongly influenced by the rate of pathogen emission by an infected individual, the output power of UVGI fixtures and their configuration, the source of UV-C radiation implemented in the UVGI fixtures, and the characteristics of the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system. The QMRA framework provides a quantitative link between UVGI/HVAC system characteristics and changes in the risk of disease transmission. The framework can be adapted to other airborne pathogens and provides a rational basis for the design, testing, and validation of UVGI systems.