Estimating increases in skin cancer morbidity due to increases in ultraviolet radiation exposure.

It is generally accepted that if ozone levels in the stratosphere are depleted, greater amounts of shortwave ultraviolet radiation (UVB) will reach the earth's surface, resulting in increased morbidity of nonmelanoma skin cancer. The incidence and UVB data are now available from a new epidemiologic study of skin cancer conducted at eight locations of the United States. We found that either a simple power function or a simple exponential function could be used to describe these new data. According to estimates based on the power model, should the amount of exposure to UVB increase by 30%, then the incidence of skin cancer will increase by 60% in males and 45% in females. Estimates based on the exponential model vary by location, (53-96)% in males and (39-68)% in females. These estimates are somewhat lower than those based only on earlier data. We emphasize that skin cancer rates also depend on variables other than UVB which may be location specific.