Shattered Safety? Developmental Trajectories for Conspiracy Mentality and Violent Extremist Attitudes.

UNLABELLED: Violent extremism in the context of conspiracy belief poses growing societal challenges, yet developmental pathways remain poorly understood. Shattered safety—a developmental state defined by bullying victimization, emotional distress, and distrust—may lead adolescents to view the world as unsafe and unfair, heightening susceptibility to conspiracy and extremist narratives. In this study, Growth Mixture Models were conducted to identify different trajectories of shattered safety throughout adolescence, as potential developmental pathway for conspiracy mentality and violent extremist attitudes in young adulthood. Participants were 1,482 adolescents from the ongoing longitudinal Zurich Project on Social Development from Childhood to Adulthood (~ 50% female). Data from five waves were included (ages: 13, 15, 17, 20, and 24-years-old). Results revealed three developmental trajectory groups. A small group of participants (3%) experienced shattered safety throughout adolescence, reflected in increasing levels of bullying victimization, emotional distress and distrust, and this related to higher conspiracy mentality and violent extremist attitudes at age 24. Overall, these findings illustrate the importance of considering developmental factors to safeguard against harmful narratives, calling for a public health-oriented approach that promotes adolescent safety and wellbeing.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10964-026-02350-9.