Navigating regional zero-carbon steel pathways in China by aligning spatial resource constraints with facility heterogeneity.

China's iron and steel sector is pivotal to global industrial decarbonization, yet near-zero transition pathways under heterogeneous regional resource endowments remain poorly understood. Here we develop a plant-resolved, spatially explicit framework that integrates a facility-level emission database, a cost-minimizing technology model and geospatial resource matching. We find that blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace production accounts for 83% of sectoral emissions, while 35% of blast furnaces are 10-15 years old, creating retrofit opportunities and carbon lock-in risks. Achieving a 97% emissions reduction by 2060 requires accelerated retrofits before 2040, retirement of 140 small facilities, expansion of hydrogen metallurgy to 34.6%, and a limited role for carbon capture and storage at 12.1%. Relative to business as usual, the near-zero pathway cuts cumulative system costs by 2,184 billion United States dollars (USD) by 2060 despite USD 436 billion in stranded assets. Northern and coastal regions favour hydrogen metallurgy, whereas inland provinces concentrate 46% of national carbon capture capacity. This study highlights differentiated regional pathway for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors under technological lock-in and uneven resource endowments.