Global epidemiology · 2026
Epidemiology and containment of the first Marburg virus disease outbreak in Ethiopia in 2025: A retrospective descriptive study.
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Hassen Hailemariam Mamo, Ibrahim Amelmasin Faris
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: In November 2025, Ethiopia confirmed its first Marburg Virus Disease (MVD) outbreak in Jinka, marking a significant geographical expansion of the virus with a 64% case fatality rate. This study characterizes the transmission dynamics of the 2025 MVD outbreak in Ethiopia and evaluates the impact of the national public health containment strategy on the epidemic trajectory.
METHODS: We conducted a retrospective descriptive analysis using surveillance and laboratory data from November 14 to December 30, 2025. Transmission intensity was quantified using basic (R0) and effective (Rt) reproduction numbers. We further evaluated the deployment of the investigational cAd3-Marburg vaccine and the feasibility of drone-assisted ultra-cold chain logistics under the national Evidence Generation during an Emergency (EGE) framework.
FINDINGS: The outbreak involved 14 confirmed cases and 9 fatalities (CFR: 64%). The initial R0 was 2.34, driven by nosocomial and religious clusters. Following the activation of the Incident Management System, diagnostic testing increased by over 1000%, and 2500 vaccine doses were deployed to high-risk groups. The use of drone logistics was observed to support the -80 °C cold chain for deliveries in remote areas. Rt fell below 1.0 within 14 days of formal intervention.
INTERPRETATION: The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the combination of rapid diagnostic scaling decentralized incident management and technological integration were temporally associated with the truncation of MVD transmission chains. The integrated approach of decentralized management and rapid technological deployment offers a framework for viral hemorrhagic fever preparedness in similar resource-limited settings.
METHODS: We conducted a retrospective descriptive analysis using surveillance and laboratory data from November 14 to December 30, 2025. Transmission intensity was quantified using basic (R0) and effective (Rt) reproduction numbers. We further evaluated the deployment of the investigational cAd3-Marburg vaccine and the feasibility of drone-assisted ultra-cold chain logistics under the national Evidence Generation during an Emergency (EGE) framework.
FINDINGS: The outbreak involved 14 confirmed cases and 9 fatalities (CFR: 64%). The initial R0 was 2.34, driven by nosocomial and religious clusters. Following the activation of the Incident Management System, diagnostic testing increased by over 1000%, and 2500 vaccine doses were deployed to high-risk groups. The use of drone logistics was observed to support the -80 °C cold chain for deliveries in remote areas. Rt fell below 1.0 within 14 days of formal intervention.
INTERPRETATION: The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the combination of rapid diagnostic scaling decentralized incident management and technological integration were temporally associated with the truncation of MVD transmission chains. The integrated approach of decentralized management and rapid technological deployment offers a framework for viral hemorrhagic fever preparedness in similar resource-limited settings.