Rapid assessment of local disease control measures against the Marburg virus outbreak in Ethiopia in late 2025.

In November 2025, Marburg virus caused the first outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Ethiopia. By December 15, a total of 14 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported, including 9 deaths, corresponding to a case fatality ratio of 64.3% among confirmed cases. In the absence of licenced vaccines or antivirals, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented to control transmission. We developed a stochastic epidemic model incorporating a stochastic exponential growth process with reporting adjustment to assess the effectiveness of NPIs. The reporting ratio was modelled using a beta distribution, and transmission parameters were estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo with particle filtering for likelihood calculation. Using pre-NPI data (November 12-23), we estimated an exponential growth rate of 0.012 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.008, 0.014) per day, corresponding to an initial reproduction number of 1.13 (95% CrI: 1.09, 1.16). We projected 64 cases (95% CrI: 19, 189) and 41 deaths (95% CrI: 12, 122) during post-NPI period (November 24 to December 15) without interventions. Compared with 4 observed cases, NPIs were associated with an estimated effectiveness of 93.7% (95% CrI: 78.9, 97.9). These findings indicated moderate transmissibility of MVD, and a potential transmission risk reduction following the implementation of control measures, underscoring the importance of timely intervention and sustained surveillance regarding local MVD activities.