Infectious medicine · 2026
A generalized multi-population model for Ebola virus transmission incorporating environmental reservoir dynamics.
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Hakeem Muhammad Farhan, Abbas Shajar, Siddique Imran, Khan Ilyas, Bakouri Mohsen, Jan Rashid, Akhmadjonov Rakhmonjon, Turaev Rasul
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Ebola virus disease (EVD) remains a serious public health hazard due to high mortality, multiple modes of transmission, and persistence in the environment. The existing Ebola transmission models have been constrained to a single or two-population framework, which are insufficient to capture multiple-population interaction transmission structures.
METHODS: This study proposes a multi-population autonomous Ebola transmission model with Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Hospitalized, Recovered, and Deceased infected corpse compartments and a shared viral reservoir in the environment. This model proposes that transmission is direct, hospital-acquired, corpse-mediated, and indirect environmental, and these modes are documented by a bilinear incidence formulation.
RESULTS: Positivity and boundedness properties of solutions were established via a mathematical analysis, and the basic reproduction number was derived using the next-generation matrix approach. The analytical findings show that whereas supercritical transmission results in persistent behaviour and the occurrence of endemic equilibria under the suggested parameters, the disease-free equilibrium is stable under the subcritical transmission condition.
CONCLUSIONS: The numerical simulations support the applicability of the suggested multi-population paradigm for comprehending threshold-dependent Ebola transmission behaviour and show its qualitative dynamics under various transmission conditions.
METHODS: This study proposes a multi-population autonomous Ebola transmission model with Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Hospitalized, Recovered, and Deceased infected corpse compartments and a shared viral reservoir in the environment. This model proposes that transmission is direct, hospital-acquired, corpse-mediated, and indirect environmental, and these modes are documented by a bilinear incidence formulation.
RESULTS: Positivity and boundedness properties of solutions were established via a mathematical analysis, and the basic reproduction number was derived using the next-generation matrix approach. The analytical findings show that whereas supercritical transmission results in persistent behaviour and the occurrence of endemic equilibria under the suggested parameters, the disease-free equilibrium is stable under the subcritical transmission condition.
CONCLUSIONS: The numerical simulations support the applicability of the suggested multi-population paradigm for comprehending threshold-dependent Ebola transmission behaviour and show its qualitative dynamics under various transmission conditions.