Probabilistic representation of the exposure of consumers to Clostridium botulinum neurotoxin in a minimally processed potato product.

We have examined the potential of a well-specified, minimally processed potato product as a vehicle for the exposure of consumers to Clostridium botulinum neurotoxin. The product is a relatively simple combination of raw potato flakes, flour, starch and other minor ingredients and has an extended lifetime under refrigeration conditions. A combination of information and data, from a variety of sources that includes the manufacturer, has shown that the product is particularly safe with respect to non-proteolytic C. botulinum hazards. The model concentrates on a simple end point, the toxicity of an individual retail unit of the product at the point of consumer preparation, which is related to an individual risk. The probabilistic analysis was built using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) techniques.