BMJ open · 2026
Predictors of unplanned 30-day hospital readmission: a retrospective cohort study in north-east Italy.
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Sartor Gino, Fusco Marco, Milana Marzio, Marcon Elisa, Battagello Jessica, Zardetto Alberto, Ruggieri Maria Grazia, Grotto Giulia, Rigon Leonardo, Arcara Giorgio, Conte Pierfranco, Buja Alessandra
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: Unplanned hospital readmissions within 30 days of discharge measure the quality of healthcare. This study aims to identify the characteristics of patients at higher risk of readmission.
DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study.
SETTING: North-east Italy (Marca Trevigiana Local Health Authority).
DATA SOURCE: The study examined a total of 39 467 index admissions from hospital discharges (SDO) in the 890 000-inhabitant area during 2022.
OUTCOME MEASURE: Readmission rates and 95% CIs were computed by risk factor, age and type of admission (surgical or medical). A logistic mixed-effects model was used to estimate readmission OR, adjusting for potential confounders.
RESULTS: A total of 2197 readmissions occurred within 30 days of the index admission, resulting in an overall rate of 30-day readmissions of 6.7% (CI 6.4% to 7.0%). The median time to readmission was 11 days (IQR 5 to 20). In the multivariate analysis, after adjusting for age and sex, the following clinical conditions were associated with a higher risk of readmission: alcohol-related disease (OR=2.06, CI 1.36 to 3.13), metastatic cancer (OR=1.98, CI 1.57 to 2.50), epilepsy (OR=1.93, CI 1.36 to 2.75), dialysis or end-stage kidney disease (OR=1.92, CI 1.39 to 2.66), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR=1.88, CI 1.49 to 2.36), stoma (OR=1.72, CI 1.22 to 2.44), transplant (OR=1.62, CI 1.03 to 2.55), being bedridden (OR=1.57, CI 1.28 to 1.93), anaemia (OR=1.57, CI 1.35 to 1.83), urinary tract infection (OR=1.54, CI 1.30 to 1.83), pneumonia (OR=1.52, CI 1.31 to 1.75), dementia (OR=1.49, CI 1.24 to 1.79), diabetes (OR=1.37, CI 1.17 to 1.61) and transfusion (OR=1.34, CI 1.03 to 1.73).
CONCLUSION: Several chronic and acute conditions at index admission significantly increased the risk of readmission. Strengthening transitional care, outpatient services and palliative care could mitigate readmissions.
DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study.
SETTING: North-east Italy (Marca Trevigiana Local Health Authority).
DATA SOURCE: The study examined a total of 39 467 index admissions from hospital discharges (SDO) in the 890 000-inhabitant area during 2022.
OUTCOME MEASURE: Readmission rates and 95% CIs were computed by risk factor, age and type of admission (surgical or medical). A logistic mixed-effects model was used to estimate readmission OR, adjusting for potential confounders.
RESULTS: A total of 2197 readmissions occurred within 30 days of the index admission, resulting in an overall rate of 30-day readmissions of 6.7% (CI 6.4% to 7.0%). The median time to readmission was 11 days (IQR 5 to 20). In the multivariate analysis, after adjusting for age and sex, the following clinical conditions were associated with a higher risk of readmission: alcohol-related disease (OR=2.06, CI 1.36 to 3.13), metastatic cancer (OR=1.98, CI 1.57 to 2.50), epilepsy (OR=1.93, CI 1.36 to 2.75), dialysis or end-stage kidney disease (OR=1.92, CI 1.39 to 2.66), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR=1.88, CI 1.49 to 2.36), stoma (OR=1.72, CI 1.22 to 2.44), transplant (OR=1.62, CI 1.03 to 2.55), being bedridden (OR=1.57, CI 1.28 to 1.93), anaemia (OR=1.57, CI 1.35 to 1.83), urinary tract infection (OR=1.54, CI 1.30 to 1.83), pneumonia (OR=1.52, CI 1.31 to 1.75), dementia (OR=1.49, CI 1.24 to 1.79), diabetes (OR=1.37, CI 1.17 to 1.61) and transfusion (OR=1.34, CI 1.03 to 1.73).
CONCLUSION: Several chronic and acute conditions at index admission significantly increased the risk of readmission. Strengthening transitional care, outpatient services and palliative care could mitigate readmissions.