Understanding Suitable Habitats and Anthropogenic Mortality Risks for King Cobras in Nepal.

The king cobra (Ophiophagus hannah), the world's largest venomous snake, is a vulnerable species with an expanding distribution in Nepal. This study modeled its current climatically suitable habitat and predicted future changes (2050 and 2070) under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario. Using 553 occurrence records and a combination of climate and topographic variables, we developed an ensemble habitat suitability model in BIOMOD2, identifying 23,702.62 km2 of suitable habitat. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the king cobra's climatically suitable habitat is projected to decline by 22% by 2050, with a relatively lower decline of 9% by 2070, indicating a potential partial shift or recovery over time. Within Nepal's protected areas, the currently suitable habitat of 3088.34 km2 is expected to decrease by 14% by 2050 and 13% by 2070, highlighting vulnerabilities even within formally conserved regions. The analysis highlighted Bagmati Province (7311.19 km2) and Gandaki Province (5935.10 km2) as key regions, with significant habitats in Chitwan National Park and Annapurna Conservation Area. However, most suitable habitats (over 60%) are located outside protected areas, emphasizing the need for effective conservation strategies. The distribution of king cobra habitats was found significantly influenced by precipitation during the warmest quarter. Analysis of 94 king cobra mortality records (2000-2024) across Nepal identified eastern lowland and mid-hill regions as critical hotspots, highlighting the urgency for focused conservation initiatives in these high-risk zones. These insights underline the need for urgent conservation measures to protect this species and its rapidly changing habitat under future climate scenarios.