British journal of cancer · 2025
Breast cancer risk prediction with a modified BOADICEA model in Danish women.
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Novitski Sif Ingibergsdóttir, Jacobsen Rikke Louise, Röder Timo, Holm Peter Christoffer, Schwinn Michael, Vejborg Ilse, von Euler-Chelpin My Catarina, Lynge Elsebeth, Ostrowski Sisse R, Sørensen Erik, Pedersen Ole Birger, Erikstrup Christian, Aagaard Bitten, Hjalgrim Henrik, DBDS Genomic Consortium, Rafnar Thórunn, Stefansson Kari, Mavaddat Nasim, Ficorella Lorenzo, Antoniou Antonis C, Ullum Henrik, Banasik Karina, Brunak Søren, Bojesen Stig Egil
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Breast cancer risk prediction approaches clinical practice. The BOADICEA risk model has been updated to consider common breast cancer risk variants, lifestyle/hormonal risk factors and mammographic density (MD).
METHODS: 49,494 women from the Danish Blood Donor Study were followed for up to 10 years. Modified BOADICEA risks within 5 and 10 years were calculated based on a polygenic breast cancer risk score combined with lifestyle/hormonal risk factors. MD was only known for 4608 women. Calibration was assessed by comparing observed and predicted risks. AUC and Harrell's concordance index (C-index) were used to assess discriminative ability and sensitivities and specificities were obtained for high and low-risk groups.
RESULTS: Within 5 and 10 years, 367 and 617 women had breast cancer. The 5-year model achieved an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI:0.78-0.81), sensitivity of 0.34 and specificity of 0.92 for all and an AUC of 0.61 (95% CI:0.58-0.65) for the 50-69-year-aged. For this age-group, the sensitivity was 0.46 in the 10-year model. 50% of women with the highest 5-year risk predictions, identified 94.8% of those with incident breast cancers.
CONCLUSION: The modified BOADICEA risk model provided valid risks among a large retrospective cohort of Danish women.
METHODS: 49,494 women from the Danish Blood Donor Study were followed for up to 10 years. Modified BOADICEA risks within 5 and 10 years were calculated based on a polygenic breast cancer risk score combined with lifestyle/hormonal risk factors. MD was only known for 4608 women. Calibration was assessed by comparing observed and predicted risks. AUC and Harrell's concordance index (C-index) were used to assess discriminative ability and sensitivities and specificities were obtained for high and low-risk groups.
RESULTS: Within 5 and 10 years, 367 and 617 women had breast cancer. The 5-year model achieved an AUC of 0.80 (95% CI:0.78-0.81), sensitivity of 0.34 and specificity of 0.92 for all and an AUC of 0.61 (95% CI:0.58-0.65) for the 50-69-year-aged. For this age-group, the sensitivity was 0.46 in the 10-year model. 50% of women with the highest 5-year risk predictions, identified 94.8% of those with incident breast cancers.
CONCLUSION: The modified BOADICEA risk model provided valid risks among a large retrospective cohort of Danish women.