Journal of public health research · 2026
Spatial and spatio-temporal patterns of road traffic accident mortality in Bangladesh, 2022-2024: A district-level geospatial analysis.
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Hasan Pratyay, Khan Tazdin Delwar, Alam Ishteaque, Haque Mohammad Emdadul, Abedin Minhajul
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: Road traffic accidents (RTAs) are a leading cause of injury deaths in Bangladesh, but local geographic patterns remain poorly understood. This study aimed to identify high- and low-risk districts for RTA mortality and track changes from 2022 to 2024 to inform targeted interventions.
METHODS: In this district-level ecological study, we analyzed DGHS official RTA mortality data across all 64 districts. Population-adjusted rates were computed; Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi* assessed spatial autocorrelation for hotspots/coldspots; SaTScan detected space-time clusters.
RESULTS: Raw counts were randomly distributed, but adjusted rates showed significant dispersion (Moran's I = -0.143, p=0.006 in 2023), with high-risk districts bordering low-risk ones. Persistent northwestern spatial hotspots included Naogaon, Natore, and Bogra. Spatio-temporal analysis identified high-rate clusters in 2024 for Dhaka (RR 6.14, p=0.001) and Rajshahi (RR 10.07, p=0.001), alongside stable low-mortality clusters in northern (RR 0.07) and southern (RR 0.19) regions. Methodological limitations include the use of uniform population projection rates and the ecological design, which precludes causal inference.
CONCLUSION: RTA mortality reflects distinct local epidemics, not a uniform crisis. Geographic disparities support a precision public health approach, with prioritization of high-risk corridors and urban zones for targeted interventions, alongside investigation of protective factors in low-risk clusters.
METHODS: In this district-level ecological study, we analyzed DGHS official RTA mortality data across all 64 districts. Population-adjusted rates were computed; Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi* assessed spatial autocorrelation for hotspots/coldspots; SaTScan detected space-time clusters.
RESULTS: Raw counts were randomly distributed, but adjusted rates showed significant dispersion (Moran's I = -0.143, p=0.006 in 2023), with high-risk districts bordering low-risk ones. Persistent northwestern spatial hotspots included Naogaon, Natore, and Bogra. Spatio-temporal analysis identified high-rate clusters in 2024 for Dhaka (RR 6.14, p=0.001) and Rajshahi (RR 10.07, p=0.001), alongside stable low-mortality clusters in northern (RR 0.07) and southern (RR 0.19) regions. Methodological limitations include the use of uniform population projection rates and the ecological design, which precludes causal inference.
CONCLUSION: RTA mortality reflects distinct local epidemics, not a uniform crisis. Geographic disparities support a precision public health approach, with prioritization of high-risk corridors and urban zones for targeted interventions, alongside investigation of protective factors in low-risk clusters.