Understanding the value and causes of mortality and production losses for beef cattle in East Java, Indonesia.

Beef production is an important industry in Indonesia, especially in East Java. Understanding the economic value and causes of production losses can be used to inform investments into animal health. This study estimated the total value of animal health loss in beef cattle production in East Java and attributed this loss to infectious diseases, non-infectious diseases and external causes. Beef cattle population, reproductive performance, mortality, offtake and productivity were analysed using official statistics and values from the literature. Expert elicitation was used to estimate productivity in an Ideal Health scenario, free from disease impacts. The value of total cattle health loss in 2021 was estimated using the GBADs dynamic population model. Attribution of this loss to infectious diseases, non-infectious diseases and external causes was done using an expert elicitation process. Compared to the Ideal Health scenario, the total animal health loss was estimated at 961 million USD in 2021. For the burden attributions of the mortality loss, infectious diseases were believed as the major reasons (38-45% in all age groups), followed by non-infectious diseases (32 - 39% in all age groups) and external causes (20-30% in all age groups). Similar results were seen on the burden attributions of the production loss. The study provides an initial estimate of the value and causes of animal health losses for beef cattle in East Java. These data can be used to inform policy and as a basis for further health investment in the beef cattle industry.