Dengue incidence and its relationship with El Niño oceanic index, as a sensitive variable to anticipate outbreaks in the Colombian Caribbean region.

INTRODUCTION

The Lancet Countdown 2023 report for Latin America indicates that rising temperatures influence the transmission of the dengue virus. In Colombia’s Caribbean region, a significant association has been identified between dengue incidence and climatic variables, such as temperature, humidity, and precipitation.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the relationship between the incidence of dengue and the oceanic Niño index in the departments of the Colombian Caribbean region from 2021 to 2023.

MATERIALS AND

METHODS

An ecological time series study was conducted using distributed lag non-linear models and autoregressive integrated moving average models in the seven departments of the Caribbean region. Descriptive and autoregressive analyses were performed using JASP and RStudio. Non-linear and lagged analyses were run with the dlnmpackage in RStudio.

RESULTS

A positive and significant relationship between the oceanic Niño index and dengue incidence was found for 2023 data, the year when the El Niño - ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) warm phase occurred. Bolívar, Cesar, Córdoba, and Magdalena departments showed positive correlations. A non-linear relationship between El Niño/La Niña and dengue incidence was also observed, with a higher increase in dengue cases during El Niño events.

CONCLUSIONS

The oceanic Niño index appears to be a useful climatic indicator for monitoring increases in the monthly dengue incidence rate in the analyzed departments of Colombia’s Caribbean región.