The influence of disaster knowledge, official trust, and sources of warning information on public risk perception in typhoon-prone areas of China: a structural equation modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Typhoons are one of the most common natural disasters, seriously jeopardizing public safety. Risk perception, defined as the subjective judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of a risk, plays a crucial role in public preparedness behavior during typhoon disasters. However, there is a lack of knowledge regarding public risk perception and its influencing factors in typhoon-prone areas. This study aims to fill the knowledge gap by evaluating the public risk perception and key factors associated with perceptions among the general public. In addition, the relationship between the disaster knowledge, official trust, sources of warning information, and risk perception will be explored.

METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted from October 2024 to January 2025 with participants from Hainan Island, China. The target population consisted of residents aged 18 years and older who had resided on Hainan Island for over half a year (N = 517). The perceptions related to typhoon disaster were collected with the Typhoon Disaster Public Risk Perception Scale (TDPRPS). Ordered Choice Model theory was used to develop a hypothesized model to test hypotheses regarding residents' disaster risk perception, and structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to test the model.

RESULTS: Out of 517 participants surveyed, Data were comprised of 517 valid responses from 11 major administration areas across Hainan Island. Disaster knowledge, official trust, sources of warning information were significantly correlated with public risk perception. SEM results revealed that the model fit the data well. The results showed that disaster knowledge and official trust are directly and positively associated with risk perception (the unstandardized coefficients of direct path are 0.331 and 0.467 respectively, p < 0.01). While the relationship between source of warning information and risk perception was fully mediated by disaster knowledge and official trust (the unstandardized coefficient of indirect path is 0.211, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: This study indicates that warning information does not directly correlate with risk perception; their relationship is fully mediated by disaster knowledge and official trust. To improve disaster risk perception, government agencies might consider strengthening institutional credibility, diversifying warning channels, and enhancing public disaster education.