The impact of large-scale release of Wolbachia mosquitoes on dengue incidence in Campo Grande, Brazil: an ecological study.
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de Morais Batista Fabiani, Carcamo Paloma M, Nelson Elisabeth, da Silva Neto Antonio Brandão, Tsuha Daniel Henrique, Lahdo Veruska, Dos Santos Vagner Ricardo, Ribeiro Gabriel Sylvestre, da Silva Lopes Renato, Amadeu Pilar, Ferreira Mendes Blanco Marcos Vinicius, da Costa Thiago Rodrigues, de Melo Chalegre Karlos Diogo, Riback Thais Irene Souza, da Silva Cátia Cabral, Ranzani Otavio T, Cummings Derek A T, Andrews Jason R, Ko Albert I, Hitchings Matt D T, Anders Katherine L, Moreira Luciano Andrade, Maymone Gonçalves Crhistinne Cavalheiro, Croda Julio
Аннотация
METHODS: Mosquitoes infected with wMel Wolbachia were released in geographically phased deployments throughout Campo Grande from December 2020 through December 2023. An ovitrap surveillance network monitored Wolbachia prevalence in local Ae. aegypti populations during and after releases. Mixed-effects negative binomial regression was used to evaluate neighborhood-level monthly notified dengue incidence (2008-2024) as a function of monthly wMel exposure status, comparing fully treated (wMel prevalence stably ≥60%) and partially treated (ongoing releases or wMel <60%) with untreated periods, accounting for seasonal variation.
FINDINGS: More than 100 million Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes were released, achieving a post-intervention mean Wolbachia prevalence of 86.4% (95% CI 84.0-88.9), with 89% of intervention areas reaching stable Wolbachia levels ≥60%. Stable establishment of wMel at ≥60% prevalence was associated with a 63.2% (95% CI 51.9-71.9) reduction in dengue incidence.
INTERPRETATION: Our results demonstrate successful large-scale Wolbachia establishment in Ae. aegypti populations and a substantial epidemiological impact on dengue incidence in an urban Brazilian setting. This study provides robust evidence supporting Wolbachia deployment as an effective, sustainable public health intervention and validates its implementation as a federal government-supported dengue control strategy in Brazil.
FUNDING: This work was supported by the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation.