Trends and cyclical patterns of dengue disease in Mexico: A 40-year time series analysis.

PURPOSE: To quantify long-term trends and multi-year cycles in dengue in Mexico (1985-2025) and examine recent serotype-severity patterns.

METHODS

We integrated open national surveillance data from the Morbidity Yearbook (1985-2024) and Open Data (2020-2025) using the official estimated-cases definition. Monthly series underwent STL decomposition, Butterworth filtering, periodogram, and autocorrelation analyses. Stationarity was assessed in prespecified windows (1985-2000; 2000-2015; 2015-2025) and by geography (coastal/high-burden vs inland). Serotype distribution and hospitalizations (2020-2025) were summarized among laboratory-confirmed cases and compared across years with χ² tests.

RESULTS

Over 40 years we identified 1715,456 estimated cases; annual burden increased (Mann-Kendall z = 3.25; Sen's slope ≈ +1275 cases/year). A recurrent multi-year oscillation overlaid the seasonal cycle, with a spectral peak near 5.8 years and an ACF secondary maximum at ∼4.3 years; the signal persisted in coastal/high-burden states and across historical windows. Since 2023, DENV-3 predominated (86 % in 2024; 94.9 % by May-2025) and coincided with higher hospitalization proportions.

CONCLUSIONS

Dengue in Mexico shows a significant long-term rise and a reproducible ∼5-year cycle. Cycle-aware baselines, paired with serotype surveillance, could sharpen early-warning thresholds and targeting of vector control.