Did Environmental and Climatic Factors Influence the Outcome of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Republic of Serbia?

Background

The aim of the study is to determine whether environmental and climatic factors (air quality, precipitation rates, and air temperatures) alongside specific public health measures (social distancing and vaccination) have influenced total number of SARS CoV-2 positive cases (TOTAL CASES) and deaths (TOTAL DEATHS) from COVID-19 infection in the Republic of Serbia (RS). Method: An observational, retrospective study was conducted, covering the following three-year period in the RS: I (1 March 2020-1 March 2021); II (1 March 2021-1 March 2022); and III (1 March 2022-1 March 2023). Air quality was expressed as the values of the air quality index (AQI) and the concentrations of particulate matter 2.5 µm (PM2.5). Precipitation rates (PREC) were expressed as the average monthly amount of rainfall (mm), while average air temperatures (AIR TEMP) were expressed in °C. Data were collected from relevant official and publicly available national and international resources. Data regarding the COVID-19 pandemic were collected from the World Health Organization.

Results

No differences between the periods were observed for the average values of AIR TEMP (11.2-12.2 °C), PREC (56.1-66.8 mm), and AQI (57.2-58.8), while the average values of PM2.5 significantly decreased in the III period (21.2 compared to 25.2, p = 0.03). Both TOTAL CASES and TOTAL DEATHS from COVID-19 infection showed positive correlation with the AQI and PM2.5 and a negative correlation with the AIR TEMP. The correlation coefficient was strongest between TOTAL DEATHS and the AIR TEMP in the II period (r = -0.7; p = 0.007). The extent of rainfall and vaccination rates did not affect any of the observed variables. No differences in TOTAL CASES and TOTAL DEATHS were observed between the periods of increased social measures and other months, while both statistically significantly increased during the vaccination period compared to months without the vaccination campaign (p < 0.02, for both).

Conclusions

Air quality, more precisely AQI and PM2.5 and average air temperatures, but no precipitation rates, influenced the number of TOTAL CASES and TOTAL DEATHS from COVID-19 infection. These were the highest during the vaccination period, but vaccination could be considered as a confounding factor since the intensive vaccination campaign was conducted during the most severe phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures did not reduce the number of TOTAL CASES or TOTAL DEATHS during the COVID-19 pandemic.