Temporal Analysis of Climate Change Impact on the Spread and Prevalence of Vector-Borne Diseases in Campania (2018-2023).

Vector-borne infections (Arbovirosis) represent a significant threat to public health worldwide. Climate change, currently a global problem, seems to contribute to the incidence and prevalence of autochthonous and imported cases of arbovirosis in Europe. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the occurrence and spread of arbovirosis in order to offer concrete ideas to the competent authorities and modulate surveillance plans on the basis of risk assessment. The results of official controls carried out from 2018 to 2023 on animals subjected to the Surveillance Plans for Blue Tongue, West Nile and Usutu viruses in the Campania Region were analyzed. Statistical analyses were performed using R software (version 4.5.0). The possible correlation between the prevalence of infections and climate parameters was evaluated with the "cross-correlation time series" (p-value < 0.05). The generalized linear mixed model showed that for each unit increase in humidity and temperature, the probability of disease spread increased by 4.56% and 7.84%, respectively. The univariate logistic regression model and the odds ratio were necessary to evaluate the possible risk related to the proximity to wetlands or to bodies of water: in the past few years, these have represented a risk for the persistence and spread of arbovirosis in the Campania region.