Assessing the causal effect of long-term exposure to air pollution on cognitive decline in middle-aged and older adults - Empirical evidence from a nationwide longitudinal cohort.

Air pollution remains a risk factor for the global burden of disease. Middle-aged and older people are more susceptible to air pollution because of their declining physical function and are more likely to develop diseases from long-term air pollution exposure. Studies of the effects of air pollution on cognitive function in middle-aged and older adults have been inconsistent. More representative and definitive evidence is needed. This study analysed data from the Chinese Family Panel Study, an ongoing nationwide prospective cohort study, collected in waves 2014, 2016 and 2018. Rigorously tested instrument was selected for analysis and participants' PM2.5 and instrument exposures were assessed using high-precision satellite data. The causal relationship between long-term exposure to air pollution and poor cognitive function in middle-aged and older adults was investigated using the Correlated Random Effects Control Function (CRE-CF) method within a quasi-experimental framework. This study included a total of 7042 participants aged 45 years or older. A comparison of CRE-CF with other models (OLS model, ordered probit model, and ordered probit-CRE model) demonstrated the necessity of using CRE-CF given the endogeneity of air pollution. The credibility and validity of the instrumental variable were verified. In the CRE-CF model, long-term exposure to PM2.5 was found to accelerate cognitive decline in middle-aged and older adults (coefficients of -0.159, -0.336 and -0.244 for the total cognitive, verbal and mathematical scores, respectively). Taken together, these results suggest that chronic exposure to ambient air pollution is associated with cognitive decline in middle-aged and older adults, which highlights the need for appropriate protective policies.