Rising Incidence and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Emerging and Reemerging Arboviruses in Brazil.

BACKGROUND

Brazil has witnessed the co-circulation of dengue virus (DENV), Zika virus (ZIKV), and chikungunya virus (CHIKV), with outbreaks exacerbated by environmental factors, social determinants, and poor sanitation. The recent re-emergence of Oropouche virus (OROV) has added complexity to vector control strategies, emphasizing the need for integrated approaches to curb arboviruses spread. We aimed to analyze temporal trends and spatial distributions with national scope of these emerging arboviruses.

METHODS

An ecological study using data from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System the period from 2023 to 2024 was undertaken. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression, while spatial analysis was conducted using Moran's I, and local indicators of spatial association.

RESULTS

Dengue fever cases increased by 322%, while Oropouche fever (OF) increased by 300%. The states of Amazonas and Espírito Santo reported increases in OF cases. Moran's I test revealed spatial clustering of DENV and CHIKV. Two municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul showed cocirculation of DENV, CHIKV, and ZIKV.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified a surge in arbovirus cases between 2023 and 2024, with peak incidences from January to March and October to December, linked to favorable climatic conditions. Clustering patterns and co-circulation of arboviruses highlight the need for tailored control and prevention strategies and targeted interventions to mitigate their impact.