International health · 2021
Global epidemiology and socio-economic development correlates of the reproductive ratio of COVID-19.
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Breitling Lutz P
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: The most commonly cited argument for imposing or lifting various restrictions in the context of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an assumed impact on the reproductive ratio of the pathogen. It has furthermore been suggested that less-developed countries are particularly affected by this pandemic. Empirical evidence for this is lacking.
METHODS: Based on a dataset covering 170 countries, patterns of empirical 7-d reproductive ratios during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic were analysed. Time trends and associations with socio-economic development indicators, such as gross domestic product per capita, physicians per population, extreme poverty prevalence and maternal mortality ratio, were analysed in mixed linear regression models using log-transformed reproductive ratios as the dependent variable.
RESULTS: Reproductive ratios during the early phase of a pandemic exhibited high fluctuations and overall strong declines. Stable estimates were observed only several weeks into the pandemic, with a median reproductive ratio of 0.96 (interquartile range 0.72-1.34) 6 weeks into the analysis period. Unfavourable socio-economic indicators showed consistent associations with higher reproductive ratios, which were elevated by a factor of 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.46), for example, in the countries in the highest compared with the lowest tertile of extreme poverty prevalence.
CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has allowed for the first time description of the global patterns of reproductive ratios of a novel pathogen during pandemic spread. The present study reports the first quantitative empirical evidence that COVID-19 net transmissibility remains less controlled in socio-economically disadvantaged countries, even months into the pandemic. This needs to be addressed by the global scientific community as well as international politics.
METHODS: Based on a dataset covering 170 countries, patterns of empirical 7-d reproductive ratios during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic were analysed. Time trends and associations with socio-economic development indicators, such as gross domestic product per capita, physicians per population, extreme poverty prevalence and maternal mortality ratio, were analysed in mixed linear regression models using log-transformed reproductive ratios as the dependent variable.
RESULTS: Reproductive ratios during the early phase of a pandemic exhibited high fluctuations and overall strong declines. Stable estimates were observed only several weeks into the pandemic, with a median reproductive ratio of 0.96 (interquartile range 0.72-1.34) 6 weeks into the analysis period. Unfavourable socio-economic indicators showed consistent associations with higher reproductive ratios, which were elevated by a factor of 1.29 (95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.46), for example, in the countries in the highest compared with the lowest tertile of extreme poverty prevalence.
CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic has allowed for the first time description of the global patterns of reproductive ratios of a novel pathogen during pandemic spread. The present study reports the first quantitative empirical evidence that COVID-19 net transmissibility remains less controlled in socio-economically disadvantaged countries, even months into the pandemic. This needs to be addressed by the global scientific community as well as international politics.