International trade and air-quality-related mortality.

Ambient air pollution is a major global cause of mortality. International trade redistributes air-pollution-related health burdens, but limited data have precluded detailed study at the country level. We couple economic, atmospheric transport, and epidemiological models to analyze health impacts of trade between countries with disparate GDP levels. We find that 14-18% of the 5.1 million annual mortalities from fine particulate air pollution are linked to trade across a wealth gap, where higher-GDP countries consume goods or services causing exposure in countries with at least 50% lower per-capita GDP. These mortality transfers highlight limitations in conventional economic valuation methods, which often disregard or discount the economic costs of mortalities in lower-income countries. We propose a method for valuing air pollution impacts of trade, designed to avoid prioritizing polluting activities in low-income nations and to help reduce negative spillover effects of trade and investment decisions.