Trade-driven redistribution of biomass appropriation intensifies ecological inequalities in Eurasian low and middle-income countries.

The rapid expansion of trade involving Eurasian low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is reshaping global patterns of biomass appropriation, yet its long-term consequences for human-induced biomass appropriation remain unclear. Here, we investigate how trade networks redistribute the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP)-a critical indicator of ecological pressure-between 2004-2050 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and food demand scenarios. We show that trade across Eurasian LMICs has diverted 30% of global HANPP burdens to low-income resource exporters, while major economies, including China and India, externalize land-use pressures through distant supply chains. By 2050, under trade expansion scenarios, consumption-based HANPP in Eurasian LMICs is projected to be 25.5%-46.2% (10.80-18.56 Pg C/a) higher than in 2017, reflecting a spatial redistribution of ecological burdens driven by increasing demand for agricultural products and processed food. Under trade growth scenarios, consumption-based HANPP in Eurasian LMICs is projected to surge from 6.38 Pg C/a (2017) to 37.29 Pg C/a under SSP5-A1 (resource-intensive trade with high animal-based food consumption), while SSP1-B1 (sustainable pathway with high plant-based food consumption) predicts a more moderate increase to 29.20 Pg C/a. However, this growth is unevenly distributed. Resource-exporting nations like Kazakhstan and Indonesia are projected to experience average annual growth rates of 3.55% and 2.87% in HANPP exports, while China and India will see annual growths of 1.98% and 2.57% in HANPP imports. Compared to neighboring countries, trade with distant countries amplifies disparities by shifting ecosystem burdens from large economies to smaller, resource-rich exporters. These findings reveal that trade among Eurasian LMICs is not only intensifying ecological pressure but also exacerbating intra-regional inequalities in biomass appropriation. Our study provides a systemic framework to track ecologically unequal exchange, offering actionable insights for achieving SDGs in an era of re-globalization.