Climate-driven infectious disease risks: a global scoping review of epidemiological patterns, methodological gaps, and policy imperatives.

BACKGROUND

Climate change is reshaping infectious disease dynamics worldwide, yet existing evidence remains fragmented, geographically imbalanced, and weakly connected to policy.

OBJECTIVE

To map global peer-reviewed literature (2010-2025) on climate-related infectious diseases, identify epidemiological patterns, methodological gaps, and policy relevance.

METHODS

Following PRISMA-ScR and Joanna Briggs guidance, PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus were searched for English-language studies (January 2010-January 2025). Of 2,239 screened records, 2,139 met inclusion criteria. Ten predefined variables were extracted and thematically coded using Python-assisted and manual validation.

RESULTS

Observational designs constituted the largest share (38.9%), followed by modeling studies (34.8%). Respiratory (36.2%) and vector-borne (34.9%) infections were the most frequent topics. Composite climate indicators were used in 29.8% of studies. Only 27% contained explicit policy recommendations, and spatial modeling appeared in 13%. Early warning systems were mentioned in 57.5% (n = 1,230) of articles, whereas socioeconomic determinants were included in only 13.4%, mostly from high-income settings. Low-income and climate-vulnerable regions remained markedly underrepresented.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite rapid expansion of climate-health research over the past 15 years, key deficits persist in methodological diversity, policy translation, and regional equity. Priorities for the next phase include longitudinal designs, integration of socioeconomic indicators, and harmonized One Health frameworks linking surveillance and adaptation. Strengthening these dimensions is essential for shifting global preparedness for climate-sensitive infectious diseases from reactive to preventive.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable.