Expected effects of a global transformation of agricultural pest management.

Ambitious policy goals to reduce pesticide use and risks have been established at global and regional levels. Here, we provide an assessment of the expected effects of such a global transformation of agricultural pest management. We develop a holistic assessment framework covering economic, human health, food security, social, and environmental effects and conduct a global survey with 517 experts from key disciplines and major agricultural production regions. This is an important step to identify leverage points for advancing pesticide policies and focusing future research efforts. Our results demonstrate that transforming agricultural pest management could be an important nexus for addressing multiple sustainability challenges. We find the highest expected benefits for the environmental and human health domains and the lowest for the economic and food safety domains. For regions with low income and low pesticide use, we find higher benefits and less trade-offs of the transformation than for intensive production systems in Europe and North America. Finally, a transformation is not free of costs and our results indicate that it will require a combination of new and locally adapted pest management solutions, research and support for their implementation on the ground, and an enabling policy environment.