Investigating the impact of climatic and environmental factors on HFRS prevalence in Anhui Province, China, using satellite and reanalysis data.

INTRODUCTION

Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS) is the most commonly diagnosed zoonosis in Asia. Despite taking various preventive measures, HFRS remains prevalent across multiple regions in China. This study aims to investigate the impact of climatic and environmental factors on the prevalence of HFRS in Anhui Province, China, utilizing satellite and reanalysis data.

METHODS

We collect monthly HFRS data from Anhui Province spanning 2005 to 2019 and integrated MODIS satellite datasets and ERA5 reanalysis data, including variables such as precipitation, temperature, humidity, solar radiation, aerosol optical depth (AOD), and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Continuous wavelet transform, Spearman correlation analysis, and Poisson regression analysis are employed to assess the association between climatic and environmental factors and HFRS cases.

RESULTS

Our findings reveal that HFRS cases predominantly occur during the spring and winter seasons, with the highest peak intensity observed in a 9-year cycle. Notably, the monthly average relative humidity exhibits a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.404 at a 4-month lag, taking precedence over other contributing factors. Poisson regression analysis elucidates that NDVI at a 2-month lag, mean temperature (T) and solar radiation (SR) at a 4-month lag, precipitation (P), relative humidity (RH), and AOD at a 5-month lag exhibit the most robust explanatory power for HFRS occurrence. Moreover, the developed predictive model exhibiting commendable accuracy.

DISCUSSION: This study provides key evidence for understanding how climatic and environmental factors influence the transmission of HFRS at the provincial scale. Insights from this research are critical for formulating effective preventive strategies and serving as a resource for HFRS prevention and control efforts.