Food classifications provide an approximate packaging indicator to support monitoring of mismanaged plastic waste.

Mismanaged plastic waste undermines environmental quality, aquatic ecosystems and ultimately public health. Mismanaged plastics increasingly originate from urban populations lacking waste collection services. Household expenditure survey analyses have quantified plastic waste generation among these populations, but only for individual products (e.g. bagged or bottled drinking-water), not for the overall packaging profile of households' basket-of-goods. This study aims to evaluate how far the international NOVA classification of foods/beverages and commodity classifications by residents predict plastic food packaging. Via a cross-sectional market surveillance survey, packaging was observed for 502 and 396 transactions at selected retail outlets serving low-income areas of Greater Accra, Ghana, and Kisumu, Kenya respectively. In both cities, NOVA processed/ultra-processed food and food/beverage classes created by local residents were significantly associated with greater plastic food packaging, with similar predictive performance. Plastic packaging prevalence was also significantly higher in supermarkets. Plastic packaging use was significantly lower in Kisumu, where single-use carrier bags are banned. Thus, given their international availability and national representativeness, household expenditure surveys have potential for monitoring to inform policy by targeting plastic pollution hot-spots. However, survey-based monitoring should incorporate expert knowledge of national context and the retail environment to reflect the realities of packaging use.