Exploring the economically sustainable solutions for clean heating in rural Northern China.

China's Rural Clean Heating Policy (RCHP) is confronted with affordability issues in terms of the increasing household heating costs against the background of subsidies phase out, calling for economically feasible strategies to alleviate the heating burden. By compiling a high-resolution township-level RCHP retrofitting dataset, here we comprehensively assessed the rural residential heating burdens, with or without operational subsidies, and further explored the economically viable clean heating strategies in Northern China. We show that eliminating subsidies would significantly increase rural residential heating expenditure by 36.2% (an average of 523.3 CNY per household), and low-income rural residents in Shandong and Shanxi would bear the most significant increase in heating burdens. The incremental heating costs can be partly offset (18.7%) by RCHP's carbon reduction credits in the context of the Chinese Certified Emission Reduction. Rural rooftop photovoltaics show significant potential in increasing household revenue, particularly in Hebei, Shanxi, and Beijing, where they can compensate for an average of 32.2-64.5% of the increased heating costs. The implementation of tailored subsidy phase-out strategies, coupled with the promotion of distributed PV projects, could enhance the sustainability of clean heating in China.