Socially-isolated neighborhoods and the risk of all-cause mortality among nursing home residents in the United States: A multilevel study.

The total number of Americans age 65 and older is expected to nearly double by 2060, and the number of Americans admitted to nursing homes is likewise anticipated to escalate. Studies have found living alone to be an important risk factor for mortality. Yet little is known about possible spillover health effects of living in a community where many elderly residents live alone. Even less is known about whether these risks persist after entering nursing homes. Our study population consisted of 874,162 US elderly adults newly admitted to nursing homes in 2011, as identified from the 3.0 Minimum Data Set. Data on these individuals were linked to Medicare claims and 2010 Census data. In this cohort study, we estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for the associations between the quartiles of county-level percentage of households with those age 65 or older living alone and the individual-level risks of all-cause mortality until December 31, 2013, controlling for county-, nursing home facility-, and individual-level factors. Older adults in counties belonging to the highest quartile of elderly single-occupancy households had a 8% higher risk of dying (HR = 1.08; 95% CI = 1.04-1.12, p < 0.001) after entering nursing homes compared to those in counties belonging to the lowest quartile. There was evidence of a linear trend (p for trend < 0.001). Should these findings be confirmed in future studies, it would suggest that living arrangements in elderly communities may have spillover health effects onto their residents. Programs and interventions that modify such living arrangements may yield more favorable health trajectories among older Americans, who are increasingly aging in place and at growing risk of entering nursing homes.