Using social indicators to predict addiction.

Because of cost and other constraints, states often find it difficult to estimate need for treatment of alcohol-related problems from routine surveys. The social undesirability of illegal drug use makes the assessment of need for treatment of their use even more difficult. This paper uses independently obtained treatment need estimates to provide parameters for short-term prediction. We obtained the parameters by regressing the proportions of people addicted to alcohol (or drugs) in counties on social-indicator-based relative treatment need estimates for alcohol (or drugs). In addition to integrating estimates coming from independent sources, our approach presents an important tool for planning and resource allocation.