Revista espanola de sanidad penitenciaria · 2019
Is it possible to eliminate hepatitis C from the prisons of Catalonia, Spain, in 2021?
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Marco A, Guerrero R A, Turu E, Gallego C, Teixidó N, Sastre A, Caylà J A, GRUMIP* (GRUMIP or Grup de Control de Malalties Infeccioses en el Àmbit Penitenciari)
Аннотация
AIM: Predict the elimination of chronic hepatitis C in Catalan prisons.
MATERIAL AND METHOD: We analyzed the trend of the prevalence of HCV-RNA and anti-hepatitis C treatments prescribed in Catalonia in the period 2002-2016. Using linear exponential smoothing from the historical values in the time series, we estimate the time required to eliminate hepatitis C as a public health problem in prisons (prevalence of hepatitis C virus RNA<1%).
RESULTS: A total of 1264 treatments were administered by 12/31/2016. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus RNA was 31.2% in 2002, decreasing to 8.81% in 2016. We estimate that prevalence will reach 0-0.5% in 5 years (second half 2021; 95% CI: 2019-2025).
DISCUSSION: Appropriate actions can eliminate hepatitis C infection in prisoners. We estimate that by 2021 hepatitis C infection will no longer be a public health problem in Catalonia prisons.
MATERIAL AND METHOD: We analyzed the trend of the prevalence of HCV-RNA and anti-hepatitis C treatments prescribed in Catalonia in the period 2002-2016. Using linear exponential smoothing from the historical values in the time series, we estimate the time required to eliminate hepatitis C as a public health problem in prisons (prevalence of hepatitis C virus RNA<1%).
RESULTS: A total of 1264 treatments were administered by 12/31/2016. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus RNA was 31.2% in 2002, decreasing to 8.81% in 2016. We estimate that prevalence will reach 0-0.5% in 5 years (second half 2021; 95% CI: 2019-2025).
DISCUSSION: Appropriate actions can eliminate hepatitis C infection in prisoners. We estimate that by 2021 hepatitis C infection will no longer be a public health problem in Catalonia prisons.