Tobacco induced diseases · 2026
The association of tobacco use on gastrointestinal cancers: A secondary dataset analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and Mendelian randomization.
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Liu Yuan, Liu Changming, Li Xiaowu, He Juan, Zhou Quan, Chen Yi, Tang Jinfeng
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Gastrointestinal cancers remain a major global health issue, with tobacco use as a key factor. Understanding the impact of tobacco use on these cancers and its regional trends is essential for effective prevention strategies.
METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we analyzed mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to tobacco from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression estimated average annual percent change (AAPC), and ARIMA predicted disease burden up to 2036. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis with GWAS data, applied methods such as inverse variance weighting (IVW) and MR-Egger for causal inference.
RESULTS: Esophageal cancer had the highest burden in 2021, with a mortality rate of 2.54 deaths per 100000 population and a DALY rate of 58.49 DALYs per 100000 population. Stomach cancer showed the most significant decrease, with mortality dropping from 2.81 to 1.25 deaths per 100000 population (AAPC= -2.58; 95% uncertainty interval, UI: -2.61- -2.55) and DALY rates decreasing from 71.71 to 29.01 DALYs per 100000 population (AAPC= -2.87; 95% UI: -2.90 - -2.84). The disease burden was higher in older males. ARIMA analysis showed a general decline in disease burden, though some regions had an increasing trend. MR analysis did not provide genetic evidence supporting an association between tobacco use and these cancers.
CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of gastrointestinal cancers linked to tobacco use showed a declining trend. However, mortality and DALY rates remain high, with significant regional, age, and gender differences, highlighting the need for continued tobacco control efforts.
METHODS: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study, we analyzed mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) related to tobacco from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression estimated average annual percent change (AAPC), and ARIMA predicted disease burden up to 2036. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis with GWAS data, applied methods such as inverse variance weighting (IVW) and MR-Egger for causal inference.
RESULTS: Esophageal cancer had the highest burden in 2021, with a mortality rate of 2.54 deaths per 100000 population and a DALY rate of 58.49 DALYs per 100000 population. Stomach cancer showed the most significant decrease, with mortality dropping from 2.81 to 1.25 deaths per 100000 population (AAPC= -2.58; 95% uncertainty interval, UI: -2.61- -2.55) and DALY rates decreasing from 71.71 to 29.01 DALYs per 100000 population (AAPC= -2.87; 95% UI: -2.90 - -2.84). The disease burden was higher in older males. ARIMA analysis showed a general decline in disease burden, though some regions had an increasing trend. MR analysis did not provide genetic evidence supporting an association between tobacco use and these cancers.
CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of gastrointestinal cancers linked to tobacco use showed a declining trend. However, mortality and DALY rates remain high, with significant regional, age, and gender differences, highlighting the need for continued tobacco control efforts.