Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2025
Unraveling the Effects of Economic Growth and Unemployment on Tobacco Use: A Panel Data Approach.
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Savaş Yunus, Erat Veysel, Alma Savaş Dilek
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: The economic situation is recognized as a significant factor influencing tobacco consumption. Accordingly, this research aims to investigate the relationship between economic growth, unemployment, and tobacco use.
METHODS: This investigation employs data from 1985 to 2019 to elucidate the relationship between economic growth, unemployment, and tobacco consumption in a select group of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. Employing Pedroni and Johansen-Fisher panel co-integration tests, we assess the co-integrating relationships. Furthermore, FMOLS and DOLS techniques are applied, complemented by the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test.
RESULTS: FMOLS and DOLS results suggest that a 1% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) leads to a 6.46% and 7.29% rise in tobacco consumption, respectively, while GDP squared results in a 0.39% and 0.43% decrease. However, both tests failed to establish a significant relationship between tobacco consumption and unemployment. Co-integration was confirmed by Johansen-Fisher and Pedroni tests. Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests revealed the direction of Granger causality from economic growth to tobacco consumption, but not with unemployment.
CONCLUSION: Tobacco consumption declined across all countries studied. Economic growth shows a positive association, while GDP squared has a negative association, indicating an inverted U-shaped relationship. No significant relationship was found with unemployment in the employed tests.
IMPLICATIONS: In addition to the measures implemented by countries to reduce tobacco consumption, economic factors also exert a significant relation with smoking behavior. The available results suggest that economic growth is initially associated with an increase in tobacco consumption but the reduction in later stages indicating a long-term inverse relationship between economic growth and tobacco use.
METHODS: This investigation employs data from 1985 to 2019 to elucidate the relationship between economic growth, unemployment, and tobacco consumption in a select group of Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. Employing Pedroni and Johansen-Fisher panel co-integration tests, we assess the co-integrating relationships. Furthermore, FMOLS and DOLS techniques are applied, complemented by the Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel causality test.
RESULTS: FMOLS and DOLS results suggest that a 1% increase in gross domestic product (GDP) leads to a 6.46% and 7.29% rise in tobacco consumption, respectively, while GDP squared results in a 0.39% and 0.43% decrease. However, both tests failed to establish a significant relationship between tobacco consumption and unemployment. Co-integration was confirmed by Johansen-Fisher and Pedroni tests. Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality tests revealed the direction of Granger causality from economic growth to tobacco consumption, but not with unemployment.
CONCLUSION: Tobacco consumption declined across all countries studied. Economic growth shows a positive association, while GDP squared has a negative association, indicating an inverted U-shaped relationship. No significant relationship was found with unemployment in the employed tests.
IMPLICATIONS: In addition to the measures implemented by countries to reduce tobacco consumption, economic factors also exert a significant relation with smoking behavior. The available results suggest that economic growth is initially associated with an increase in tobacco consumption but the reduction in later stages indicating a long-term inverse relationship between economic growth and tobacco use.